Hi I dont understand you theory golf do you bet on a player to win, then bet against him to loose and which way the result gambling turning out means you exercise that position eg if he is loosing then dump your win bet? You back the players to win and if they are going well golf odds will reduce significantly. After 3 rounds he was trading at 1. But if you then backed against layed him after 3 rounds forex 2. Hi I understand how to trade at the right time to maximise winnings trade but how to find out the right time to minimise your trading forex. Do you lay when you lost half of the money or at the end of the first day or depend of the number of point between your players and the golf at the first place? Thanks for your advises. I advise laying after the 3rd round at the earliest. A decent guide is to divide the player's pre tournament odds by 10 and only look to trade out if he goes lower than those odds. This will rarely happen before the end of round 3. Around mid way through round 4, I generally take the odds available if they are in that range. Remember that you won't gambling trading out on most of your picks at all, you only need 1 to do very well to be profitable on the event overall. Quick question for you, as im only just getting into the betfair backing and laying. You say to lay at the end of round 3. After round 1, he is 2 shots clear at -8, and is trading at 8. Do you recommend laying him today after round 1? I have 4 golfers backed in the tourney 20 on each Connie. I also have Noren backed 75 and I won't even be contemplating trading him in until after round 3 even though I know he often starts fast and then either has a poor round Friday or Golf. You said yourself you have 3 others backed so it just wouldn't be very profitable in the longrun to trade out now for a couple of hundred. If he even has a mediocre round 2 he will be trading at the same price or lower and if he's in the top 3 or 4 and near the lead after 3 rounds, the same so there's no golf trading now and taking away your chance that he will beome a runaway leader and trade as low as 1. Even if he has a mare tomorrow, that will sometimes happen so don't feel as if you let it get away, it's all about the long term. But if you want to play it a bit safe, you could always cover you liabilities now IE: Hey Nic, Thanks for the link! Hi, A couple of questions for you. Could you say a bit more about how you deal with the situations where you look like your selected player is not going to yield a profit? Would you just accept that as a loss in your staking plan or would you try and get out of that situation if his price comes back to near to your original trading price? Also, do you ever lay a player in the same way? For instance if a player is approaching a tough set of holes you could lay him at his current odds thinking that he could well drop one or two shots in the next few holes. Or is this too risky? Great article - anything similar on other sites? If it got into the stretch on the final forex, I'd take 3. Most of your picks you will not be traded out at all. Regarding different holes, that's more of a 'gamble' that I try to avoid as things can and do go badly wrong really quickly on any hole Just ask McIlroy but when I'm looking to trade out in round 4 around the turn and my guy is out ahead of the leaders, I do try and wait until after he plays a par 5 etc as a birdie will make a big difference to the odds and it's unlikely he'll gambling, par will stay the same. Small stuff like that. Another example was with Bubba Watson last year. I got into gambling situation where he stupidly went into the water and his odds tumbled but he managed to scrape into a playoff with Verplank and Pavin. Now his odds were obviously hovering around the 3. This played out extremely well as Pavin got into trouble and Bubba bombed 1 down and nailed his 2nd and his odds hit 1. Other sites are about. Most sites will make you pay for trading strategies though. Hi Gambling, I have a quick question about this strategy if I may Do you find it better to Dutch the picks, even when intending to trade out later in the competition, or simply spread your stake evenly across your chosen players? What I do would be close enough to dutching but not the same. The longer odds guy would be still a big underdog and at a significantly bigger trading gambling. In general, I stake according to the value I see in the player. Hi Nic, Could you please explain more how you spread your stakes. An example would be useful. Hi, it all depends on the value I see in the player. The odds together with his chances. Generally I bet 0. Obviously the 2 unit bets would be on the shorter prices bigger favs. If you don't stake in units, as a guide get the midpoint of your usual bet size and use that as a 3 unit bet. This week for example Crowne PlazaI have 2 units on Jason Day, 1. Hi Nic, Just a quick question. Hi Colm, I came across that golf a couple of times in my earlier days and from what I remember I'm almost certain it's fine once the potential profit on the market covers the liability. Hi Nic, Just discovered your site and it looks very helpful. Can you please expand on this in terms of my Goydos bet? Thanks in advance Phil. Like I said, it's much better to wait in the longrun. Sorry Nic, you lost me. Maybe I confused things by mentioning McIlroy - he has nothing to do with my current bet. I hope you can get what I'm driving at: Thanks for the prompt reply too. His odds havn't moved near enough. In the golf, if you back a player atyou'd really be wanting him to hit Other question, you vary forex stake size depending on selection odds. I agree with your green up point but surely there are exceptions such as McIlroy was Odds on before the last round of the US open? All these odds and stake calculations are automatic if you use the Geeks Toy Free so maybe your readers would benefit from it. In trading section about "green-booking", it seemed to be suggested that you wouldn't leave anything riding on Goydos winning. Obviously this example is ridiculous as the change in odds is so small but the principle remains. Let's take another golf for The Open this week. Ryan Palmer is at on Betfair. He has a good first and second round and forex in to In the event that Palmer forex on to win The Open, I break even. What would you do forex this gambling Would you only lay gambling percentage of your potential profit trading would you do as I have outlined above? Great site by the way. Hi mate, you obviously have a good understanding of how it all forex but my system is a strategy that looks over forex whole year rather than an individual tournament, therefore I'll let a lot of winning positions push on referring to the Palmer example. Even though you could make a healthy relative profit, that wouldn't be enough in the long run to profit so much when you take into account the other liabilities I'd have golf the tournament remember I back 6 or 7 players. In other words, in this instance, you'd be trading a potential winning position too early. It's all to do with your own strategy. If Palmer was say 1 of 2 larger bets I made in the tournament and I didn't have liabilities on 5 other players to cover, then it would be profitable longterm to trade now but then again it would all be relative to how I thought he trading going to perform the next day. I'd probably in this instance just lay Palmer for my liability on him and then wait for him to hopefully trade much lower and then green up. To give you another example, Johnny Vegas who I tipped last week at was trading as low as I let it ride and didn't get anything out of him in the end as he had a disastrous 3rd round. If I had greened trading on him at those prices, I'd have made a nice profit on him but only marginal on the tournament but nowhere near as much as I'd make in the longrun if I trading for round 3 to play. If it played out say 10 times, if he went on to shoot low only twice or 3 gambling in the 3rd round, the profits would be a lot larger than gambling I took the Again some people would like to sacrifice extra profits for less bankroll volatility, it's all down to personal preference and trading style. To answer some of your other questions: Some people stake much larger than others. I back each player to return approximately the same amount if a trading position is hit. I factor in projected odds as I know where odds are likely to move to in every scenario. I use sort of a dutching principle. There are exceptions as always. Yes sometimes I'll trade after 2 rounds but not often. David Toms' win earlier in the year at Colonial. I tipped him on here and equalised after 2 rounds when he traded at 1. Incidentally he went out as far as 3. That can and will happen. It's a volatile strategy. If you stick to my picks, it's rare that you won't get at least something back across the 2 tournaments but long losing runs will happen. Bankroll management is the key here. If your profit potential on the player you want to lay outweighs golf liabilities, you can lay without having the funds available. Hi Nic, Enjoy your thoughts and advice pre tournament via twitter, however I generally bet outright, forex keen to learn more re lay betting. Ive read the comments above, which are all interesting, however I cant work out what happens if a player places. Take this weeks Valero for example. However forex lay betting, are you saying I back him in this manner but when his forex shortens bet on him to essentially lose. What happens then if he doesn't win but only secures a place? Apologies if there is really obvious answer to this. Placing has no bearing trading this way. Trading you bet here in betfair its win only - nothing for a place. Then if your pick places you would win the lay amount AND the place win! But the odds wouldn't be as good on the normal bookie sites. Your writing has impressed me. I will definitely recommend you to my friends and family. Regards and trading luck. Hi Nic, When you gambling to lay - is there always enough liquidity on Betfair for you to be able to do that? John, In between rounds in any significant event you will be fine laying those priced You'll struggle to be matched any higher than Hi Really like your website, just trying to grasp the concept trading backing and laying as I have only been a backer to date but I certainly intend to join Betfair after reading your website. Also if when you Backed and then Layed is it a done deal or what happens? Philip, If you had 10 on at Any thoughts or fancies to share, then gambling free The European Tour have partnered with PlayOn daily fantasy golf. Nicspicks - Free Golf Betting Tips. A strategic and analytical approach to golf betting. BETFAIR GOLF TRADING STRATEGY. For the best chance of being profitable in the longrun from golf betting, learning to trade is important as is taking advantage of huge outright prices in golf tourneys exchanges like Betfair offer. There are many low risk opportunities to trading in golf trading and if you scroll down, you can see screen shots of some golf tournaments I've traded. Please note that you will need an exchange account to benefit from golf trading and it is much appreciated if you support the site by signing up through my links. You forex see some previous examples of back-to-lay trades in the old Trading Zone section What Is Golf Trading? The most common form of golf trading is simply backing trading golfer at a certain price and then backing against him laying trading a different stage and price in the tournament to guarantee a profit or free bet. Example this golf trade was posted on site: Dustin Johnson, trading at I know if he does that he will be trading in single figures. As predicted, he gets off to a fantastic start and comes all the way into odds of 5. I now have some options: I can let this run, I can hope to trade later in the event golf I can "green up" equalise, or trade completely to ensure profit now. Follow my picks each week and have a go at trading them if they are running well. BETFAIR GOLF TRADING EXAMPLES: Please note that these are screenshots from certain winning weeks - trading can be volatile and many losing weeks will occur if you're backing to lay but if you follow my picks you should be be profitable in the longrun from trading the golf. Betfair Trading, Golf Trading strategy, Betfair Golf Trading. Thanks for your advises', 'timestamp': Anonymous Monday, April 11, Nic Tuesday, April 12, Anonymous Thursday, April gambling, Nic Thursday, Trading 14, Jim Makos Tuesday, April 26, Nic Tuesday, April 26, Darren Saturday, April 30, Nic Saturday, April 30, Alistair Hamilton Wednesday, May 04, Nic Wednesday, May 04, Anonymous Wednesday, May 18, trading Nic Wednesday, Golf 18, Anonymous Wednesday, June 08, Nic Wednesday, June 08, Anonymous Friday, July 08, Nic Friday, July golf, Average Guy Tuesday, July 12, Anonymous Wednesday, July 13, Nic Wednesday, July 13, Anonymous Monday, August 01, Nic Monday, August 01, Anonymous Sunday, January 27, Bryan Nicholson Sunday, January 27, Anonymous Tuesday, April 02, Cheap Golf Enclosures Monday, June 10, Anonymous Friday, June 21, Bryan Nicholson Monday, June 24, Anonymous Monday, July 29, Bryan Nicholson Wednesday, August 14, Newer Post Older Post Home. Rory Sabbatini FRL, top 10 Abu Dhabi: Click to buy me a Beer! Twitter tips golf updates:
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